Climate change could force 216m people to migrate within their own countries by 2050 according to a new updated report Groundswell by the World Bank.
The report revealed that this climate migration could happen across six world regions and the hotspots of internal climate migration could emerge as early as 2030 and continue to spread and intensify by 2050.
The report also said immediate and concerted action to reduce global emissions and support green, inclusive and resilient development could reduce the scale of climate migration by as much as 80%.
A press release by the World Bank said climate change has emerged as a powerful driver of internal migration because of its impacts on people’s livelihoods and loss of liveability in highly exposed locations.
By 2050 Sub-Saharan Africa could see as many as 86m internal climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific could have 49m; and South Asia will have around 40m climate migrants. North Africa with 19m, Latin America with 17m and Eastern Europe and Central Asia with about 5m will contribute to internal migration due to climate change.
World Bank vice president for sustainable development Juergen Voegele said, “The Groundswell report is a stark reminder of the human toll of climate change, particularly on the world’s poorest—those who are contributing the least to its causes. It also clearly lays out a path for countries to address some of the main factors that are causing climate-driven migration.”
The updated report includes projections and analysis for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
By deploying a scenario-based approach, the report explores potential future outcomes, which can help decision-makers plan ahead. The approach allows for the identification of internal climate in- and out- migration hotspots, namely the areas from which people are expected to move due to increasing water scarcity, declining crop productivity, and sea-level rise, and urban and rural areas with better conditions to build new livelihoods.
The report also provides a series of policy recommendations that can help slow the factors driving climate migration and prepare for expected migration flows. M