Persian Gulf states have experienced material damage from retaliatory Iranian missile and drone attacks, following the commencement of hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran on 28 February, according to a report released by Guy Carpenter, a Marsh business and leading global risk and reinsurance specialist.
In a section on specialty lines and the impact of the conflict in the Middle East in its “1 April 2026 Reinsurance Renewal Report”, Guy Carpenter said that for war and political violence lines, current estimates for potential regional exposures are around $70-80bn for the war on land.
Looking to marine lines, exposure from vessels greater than 50,000 gross tonnes is estimated at $14bn of exposure—and the sum-total of all hull-only exposures is expected to exceed $45bn. With the addition of cargo, potential claims to clients could be significant. Mobile energy platforms are also exposed to the conflict with one mobile already impacted.
In aviation, aggregated hull exposures on the ground in eight of the largest airports across the region are estimated to total approximately $35bn—notwithstanding there are additional exposures in smaller airports too. Given the scale of the conflict, there are likely to be aviation losses.
Estimated exposure table
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Line of Business
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Estimated Exposure
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War & political violence - War on land
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$70-80bn
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Marine - Hull-only exposures total
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$45bn
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Marine - Vessels >50,000 tonnes only
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$14bn
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Aviation - Aggregated hull exposures in 8 of the largest regional airports
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$35bn
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Renewal outcomes
The report added, “It has been vital to ensure continuity of coverage for clients impacted by the conflict. This meant confirming no clients were prejudiced against peers who renewed at 1 January 2026, and ensuring no conflict exclusionary language was accepted within contractual wordings.”
Learnings gained after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 highlighted the need for a solid reinsurance renewal process and have upheld through 1 April 2026, including early engagement with clients and reinsurers; the provision of thorough renewal information; and transparency of dialogue between parties.
At 1 April, double-digit risk-adjusted rate decreases have continued in the excess of loss market, with an oversupply of capacity compared to demand. With the softening environment in original insurance lines continuing, signs of pressure have been observed in downstream energy reinsurance—which is also experiencing a challenging loss environment.
Guy Carpenter has also observed some clients moving from a strategy of retaining income to offset the impact of original rate pressure to purchasing more reinsurance to benefit from the softening reinsurance market. This includes increased demand for quota shares in certain specialty lines.
Specialty retrocession lines have seen a change in landscape at this renewal, with more retro markets looking to quote and take leadership positions from what was a previously limited pool. This brings increased optionality for clients, including offerings of broader coverage.
Aviation reinsurance leaders are taking varied approaches to quoting at 1 April; some are including specific additional premiums for losses from the Middle East conflict.