With an unprecedented ‘super-cycle’ of elections in 2024, almost half the world’s populations will go to the polls before the year is out. According to a new report from Allianz Commercial, security is a concern in many territories, not only from the threat of localised unrest but because of the wider-reaching consequences of electoral outcomes on foreign policy, trade relations and supply chains.
The headline election will be in the US in November, when a narrow result could inflame existing tensions. The European Parliament elections in June could also deepen divisions, if radical-right parties gain votes and seats. As unrest can now spread more quickly and widely, thanks in part to social media, financial costs from such events for companies and insurers are mounting. Economic and insured losses from just seven civil unrest incidents in recent years cost $13bn approximately.
The reported added that with the threat of terrorism also on the rise and the prospect of greater disruption from environmental activists occurring, businesses will face even more challenges in the next few years and will need to anticipate as well as mitigate evolving risks with robust business continuity planning.
All eyes on elections in the US and the EU
The US presidential election in November is likely to be a close call, with the outcome depending on results in a handful of states. A recent poll showed that more than one third of Americans believe President Biden’s election in 2020 was not legitimate. Widespread disaffection among voters could be exploited by misinformation created by artificial intelligence and spread via social media.
The European Union elections in June could see a number of states politically shift to the right, with the potential for populist or far-right parties to gain votes and seats, building on a trend seen in 2023. Any success for these parties across Europe could result in growing opposition to EU environmental, immigration and human rights policies.
Environmental activism and terrorism threat expected to rise
Between 2022 and 2023, environmental activism incidents increased by around 120%. An impactful example was the arson attack on an electricity pylon in Germany by a left-wing extremist group. This suspended production at a local Tesla plant in March 2024, leading to economic losses estimated in the hundreds of millions of euros, according to reports. In addition to high-profile protests, a trend towards using more targeted tactics, such as focusing on individuals or politicians, is evident. There is a chance that more environmental protests could escalate from acts of nuisance into larger criminal acts.
The number of deaths from terrorism increased by 22% in 2023 and is now at its highest level since 2017, although the number of incidents fell. M