Rising competition for supremacy over soil, sea and space will fuel future global geopolitical tensions as nations seek to stake their claims on sea-based borders, previously untapped mineral resources and the all-but-unregulated cosmos, according to a new report from insurance broker Marsh.
The ‘Political Risk Report 2022’ published by Marsh Specialty, said that while land borders between countries remain key delineators of political risk – as exemplified by the current Russia/Ukraine conflict – competition for ocean territory, minerals and space will increasingly influence interstate relations.
The report said with more than 80% of the sea depths unexplored, there remains immense potential for exploration and investment to meet the growing demand for food and raw materials.
Demand and competition for strategic minerals such as cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese, thorium, titanium, uranium, and vanadium, which are crucial to the energy transition, will also shape future geopolitical risk.
With just a small number of countries, often with autocratic systems of government, producing these minerals, alternatives such as mining the sea bed are increasingly being investigated. However, this exploration could cause irreversible damage to underwater ecosystems and further disrupt already fragile global food and supply chains.
The growth in the space economy, when combined with the increased militarisation of space, could also risk an escalation of geopolitical tensions. This could be further exacerbated if there is a failure to collaborate on a robust governance framework as more countries turn to space for intelligence gathering, navigation and military communications.
Within the next decade, the low Earth orbit could host 100,000 satellites, leading to an increase in orbital debris. The impact of even a small piece of space junk could seriously damage orbiting equipment and risk triggering conflict. M