The Middle East and Africa (MEA) is forecast to see net medical trend rates higher in 2026 than in 2025 (7.6% in 2026 vs 7.3% in 2025), according to Aon, a leading global professional services firm, in its "The 2026 Global Medical Trend Rates Report".
However, gross rates in MEA are projected to be lower in 2026 than in 2025 due to cooling inflation (15.3% in 2026 vs. 15.5% in 2025).
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In MEA, over half of the markets are projecting lower medical trend rate increases in 2026 than in 2025, including Saudi Arabia, one of MEA’s largest countries. Meanwhile, other large countries such as South Africa and the United Arab Emirates are expecting medical trend rates to stay the same, while still others such as Nigeria are projecting significant increases. The variation in the change in the medical trend rates in MEA is as diverse as the region itself.
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Where increases are expected, the reasons most often cited are increased demand for healthcare services, dependence on imports combined with currency depreciation, and chronic disease burden.
Average Medical Trend Rates (Average percentage):
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2025
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2026
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Annual General Inflation Rate
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Annual Medical Trend Rates
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Annual General Inflation Rate
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Annual Medical Trend Rates
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Gross
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Net
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Gross
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Net
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Global
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2.8
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10.0
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7.2
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2.7
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9.8
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7.1
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ME & Africa
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8.2
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15.5
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7.3
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7.7
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15.3
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7.6
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Source: Aon
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Aon forecasts that medical plan costs worldwide will rise by an average of 9.8% in 2026, according to its “2026 Global Medical Trend Rates Report”. This marks a return to single-digit global growth rates for the first time since 2023.
The medical trend rate represents the projected annual percentage increase in employer-sponsored medical plan unit costs required to address anticipated price inflation, cost of technology advances, higher plan utilisation and the rising cost of prescription drugs.