Ecological threats increase the risk of conflict
Source: Middle East Insurance Review | Dec 2023
Without concerted international action, current levels of ecological degradation will substantially worsen, thereby intensifying a range of social issues, such as malnutrition and forced migration, according to a new study.
The Ecological Threat Report 2023 (ETR) produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace estimated that by 2050, 2.8bn people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats, compared to 1.8bn in 2023, with 1.1bn of these people living in countries with low societal resilience.
The report covers over 3,594 sub-national areas or 99.99% of the world’s population; assessing threats related to food risk, water risk, rapid population growth and natural disasters.
The eight major findings from the ETR include the following:
- 45% of the countries covered in the ETR are facing at least one severe or high ecological threat. Of the 221 countries in the ETR, 30% have at least one severe ecological threat. These countries are home to an estimated 1.8bn people or 22% of the global population.
- Countries with very low levels of positive peace have a fatality rate seven times higher than those with very high levels of positive peace after experiencing a natural disaster. While most countries, irrespective of their resilience level, face a low risk of natural hazards, 44 countries exhibit both high disaster risk and low resilience.
- The global food price index is currently 33% higher than in 2016, after successive increases of 35% following COVID and then a further 18% following Russian president Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Many countries rely on food imports for food security, which means they depend heavily on international trade routes and supply chains.
- More than 2bn people live in areas without access to safe drinking water. Water risk is one of the most significant ecological threats the world is currently facing. Over 2.6bn lack access to safe sanitation.
- The ETR identifies 42 countries that face severe food insecurity. More than 65% of the population has been unable to afford food for their family at some point in the past year. When large proportions of a country’s population lack food security, economic development and societal cohesion are adversely affected.
- Ecological threats have the biggest impact on conflict in regions like the Sahel, which face major deficiencies in governance and rule of law, high levels of poverty and short-term climatic variations. Transition zones, like the Sahel, are particularly prone to conflict.
- The percentage of people globally living in urban areas is expected to grow from 54% to 70% by 2050. The number of people living in cities will grow by 2.5bn by 2050. It has become evident that when cities grow fast, they can become unstable, with population growth outpacing infrastructure development. This can lead to increased crimes, poverty, slums and other informal residences.
- Most refugees and displaced people move into cities. More than 60% of all refugees and 80% of internally displaced people move to cities. Migration will be a considerable challenge for rapidly growing cities in the near future, especially as a result of forced migration and population displacement. There were over 108m forcibly displaced people as of the end of 2022. M