Will 2024 be a turning point for geopolitical risks?
Source: Middle East Insurance Review | May 2024
The potential for political instability presents a major risk for 2024, with pre-existing grievances tied to the rising cost-of-living, food and energy insecurity, falling real incomes and high levels of debt generating more frequent acts of violence according to a new report by Howden.
Howden’s 2024 Geopolitical Risk Report, 2024: a turning point? reveals that these factors are being further inflamed by populism and polarisation, along with concerns that misinformation could undermine the democratic process.
The 38-page report released in March 2024 portrays a highly complex and changeable risk landscape that traverses macroeconomics, geopolitics and technology, with economic uncertainty and an upsurge in armed conflict coinciding with a slew of high-profile elections in 2024.
With the ‘biggest election year in history’ taking place in 2024, businesses and (re)insurers face considerable uncertainty, with some 60 countries, accounting for approximately 40% of the world’s population and gross domestic product, due to hold elections.
Howden data shows that insured losses from civil unrest have risen significantly over the last decade to total $7bn in 2020-23. Rather than a series of random acts, recent losses from civil unrest are a manifestation of a highly challenged macro-environment, fuelled further by the proliferation of technology and the reach provided by smartphones and social media platforms. M