Food and water shortages in the MENA region, exacerbated by climate change, may trigger more conflict and mass migration with serious security implications for the wider world, said a draft report submitted to lawmakers from NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly who met in late May in Tbilisi, the capital city of Georgia.
Mr Osman Askin Bak, a member of the Turkish Parliament, said that MENA is home to 5% of the global population, but has access to just 1% of the world’s renewable water supply. “Climate change will worsen the region’s outlook,” he said.
Competition for scarce water and food resources is already widely blamed for increasing tension in the MENA region. War, poor governance, demographics and climate change are all making things worse.
Mr Philippe Vitel, a French legislator of the National Assembly, said: “If the Middle East and North Africa cannot achieve sustainable food and water security, we will see many more crises in the years to come.”
“The potential for conflict between regions affected by climate change should not be ruled out,” warns Ms Lilja Alfredsdottir, lawmaker and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iceland, who drafted a separate draft report on the costs of climate change for the NATO PA meeting.
“The refugee crisis shaking political stability throughout much of the Middle East and posing serious problems in Europe could be a harbinger of things to come,” said the draft report. “The huge economic and social costs linked to mass movements on this scale are self-evident. It is distinctly possible that global climate challenges could trigger mass movement particularly in regions which no longer have the water and agricultural resources needed to support life.”
The reports, debated in Tbilisi, are expected to lead to the Assembly adopting concrete recommendations for NATO governments later this year. M