The Middle East region has the largest percentage and number of countries with terrorism threats, affecting 12 out of 14 countries, according to Aon’s “2015 Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map”. The report said 57% of the countries retain a high to severe risk rating.
The geopolitical status quo in the Middle East is also changing. Regional powers – mainly Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iran – became more willing in 2014 to intervene directly in conflicts in the region, compounding tensions, pushing up defence spending and creating new security dilemmas and uncertainties, noted Aon.
The gap in political violence risk in the Middle East remains wide, with wealthier oil-exporting monarchies generally more stable and lower risk than non-exporting republics. The main trends in political and terrorist-related violence were an intensification of existing tensions in the Levant and Yemen, compared with a return to relative stability in the rest of the Gulf. Some countries continue to suffer a legacy of insecurity and instability since the 2011 Arab Spring, while others – mainly in the Gulf – have enjoyed relative stability.
The most notable exception to this trend is Saudi Arabia, where the risk rating increased from moderate to high, reflecting an increase in the number of terrorist attacks and warnings – including some targeting foreigners – in the last 12 months. In at least one instance, the Saudi authorities pointed to ISIS involvement.
Similar to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain experienced an intensification of terrorist violence against foreign and business interests in 2014, although the groups responsible for these attacks appear to be Shia extremists. Both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain also retain unrest perils, mainly as a result of regular demonstrations that continue to be organised by Shia opposition groups.
In addition, longstanding issues such as succession remain a risk concern for the Gulf monarchies. The Saudi authorities were able to smoothly manage a transition from King Abdullah to Salman in early 2015. But uncertainty about the succession of Sultan Qaboos of Oman means that country now has a coup risk peril, although still a low risk rating.
The rest of the Gulf remains relatively low risk. The unrest peril was removed from Oman and Kuwait, and both countries, along with the UAE and Qatar, remained broadly politically stable throughout 2014 and saw no notable or large-scale bouts of protest or unrest.
A relative return to stability after the unrest that affected the region in 2011 reflects both the strong economic position of these oil and gas exporting countries, despite tumbling oil and gas prices. Strong public restraints on resorting to violence, particularly in light of continued turmoil in the rest of the region, has also been a factor. This is despite the continued involvement of these countries in regional conflicts, which in some cases has become militarily overt. The unprecedented level of expeditionary military activity by Sunni Gulf states in the region and in Syria, Libya and Yemen particularly, will create new uncertainties and may contribute to a reversal of these reduced risk trends.
In the Levant, conflicts and the emergence of new powerful terrorist groups like ISIS have continued to affect the risk ratings of Jordan and Lebanon, which remain unchanged at high and severe risk, respectively. The political opposition and activists apparently see little benefit in holding public demonstrations. Nonetheless, high levels of public frustration, and sporadic bouts of unrest in Jordan and Lebanon, in particular, mean that these countries retain civil unrest perils..