The South African non-life insurance industry entered 2026 from a position of strength. Revenue growth, improved profitability and robust capital positions continue to demonstrate the resilience of the sector, according to KPMG's report titled " Presence with purpose-The South African Insurance Industry Survey 2026".
However, in an environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty, cyber threats, climate-related events and changing customer expectations, success is no longer measured by financial metrics alone, says the report in a section on the non-life insurance industry.
Geopolitical risk has become a significant and growing threat to South Africa's non-life insurance industry, driven by increasing global conflicts, cyber threats, supply chain disruptions and economic volatility,
The report says that although many of these conflicts occur or have occurred outside South Africa, the country's integration into global trade networks and dependence on international reinsurance markets mean that insurers are not insulated from their effects. Disruptions in key trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions regimes and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine increased commodity prices, affected exchange rates, disrupted supply chains and reduced the availability of reinsurance capacity, and continue to do so.
These developments lead to higher claims costs, increased premiums and greater underwriting uncertainty across multiple classes of insurance, including marine, cargo, property and casualty lines.
Cyber
The report names cyber risk as an emerging systemic concern, with growing fears in South Africa of a major cyber-induced internet outage, potentially resulting in a "Black Swan" event. Geopolitical conflicts increasingly involve cyber warfare, creating potential exposures for South Africa's financial services, port and energy infrastructures. Marine insurers are particularly vulnerable given that approximately 90% of South Africa's trade by volume is transported by sea, exposing insurers to higher war-risk costs, vessel delays, cargo losses and general average claim costs.
With this backdrop, insurers will look to strengthen resilience through enhanced exposure mapping, reassessment of policy wording, reinsurance protection and sanctions compliance and proactive engagement with policyholders.
Geopolitical risks have shifted from a peripheral concern to a core strategic risk requiring ongoing monitoring and adaptation by South African non-life insurers.