Forest fire susceptibility maps are essential tools for minimising the devastating impacts of wildfires on ecosystems, communities, and the natural environment, according to Professor Halil Akinci, director of the Natural Disasters Application and Research Centre at Artvin Coruh University and founding partner of GRIT Geographic Risk and Information Technology Services.
In an interview with Insurance Gazette, Professor Akinci emphasised that scientific modelling and fire susceptibility mapping are key to identifying high-risk areas. These tools provide critical data to support early intervention, emergency response planning, resource allocation, forest fire management, and insurance strategy development.
"Early intervention is the most effective way to combat forest fires," said Professor Akinci, noting the growing frequency and intensity of fires. “In Turkiye, forest ecosystems—particularly along the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts—are among the most vulnerable. Due to high temperatures and low humidity, these regions frequently experience wildfires, leading to extensive forest loss and severe harm to biodiversity.”
Rising fire incidents
Data from the General Directorate of Forestry (OGM) between 1988 and 2024 shows that Türkiye experienced an average of 2,252 forest fires annually, with an estimated 14,949 ha burned each year. OGM data for June 2025 alone recorded 612 forest fires—approximately 80% of which began in agricultural areas before spreading to nearby forests.
Three key risk factors
According to experts, the primary contributors to forest fire risk in Turkiye fall into three categories:
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Human negligence
Human activity is the leading cause of forest fires. The World Wildlife Fund’s Turkey Office (WWF-Türkiye) reports that over 90% of fires are human-induced. Common triggers include stubble burning, unattended picnic or shepherd fires near wooded areas, garbage burning, and careless disposal of cigarettes in fire-prone zones.
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Climate change and meteorological conditions
Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, decreasing humidity, and less frequent rainfall—driven by climate change—are significantly increasing fire risk. Strong winds exacerbate the situation by allowing fires to spread quickly and unpredictably.
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Flammable tree species
The composition of forests in the Mediterranean and Aegean regions includes tree species that are highly susceptible to fire, adding another layer of vulnerability to these already at-risk areas.
Threat to the insurance sector
The escalating frequency and severity of forest fires pose a substantial threat to the insurance and reinsurance industries. Beyond damaging forests, these fires destroy residential properties, summer homes, businesses, warehouses, vehicles, barns, farms, beehives, and agricultural lands. The financial impact is not limited to physical losses—business interruptions caused by wildfires often result in even greater economic damage.