The Middle East and Africa (MEA) were among the emerging insurance markets (excluding China) that exhibited above-trend growth in 2024, according to Swiss Re Institute (SRI) in a report on global insurance developments.
The report, titled “World insurance in 2025: a riskier, more fragmented world order”, also names Latin America, emerging Europe and Central Asia as among emerging markets (excluding China) that show higher than average growth in 2024 in the non-life insurance business.
Robust demand was seen across the UAE, Turkiye, Mexico and Poland.
Across all emerging non-life markets, premiums increased by 5.8% in 2024, in line with the 5.7% average growth of the previous decade. However, excluding China, premiums grew by 2%. In India, premiums rose by just 0.2% in 2024 due to regulatory changes.
Emerging markets – life insurance
Life insurance premiums in emerging markets, including the Middle East and Africa (MEA) but excluding China, will grow by an estimated 4.2% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, higher than the historical average (2014-23 CAGR: 2.5%).
The main growth drivers of life insurance premiums will still be low levels of insurance penetration, regulatory support and more demand from the expanding middle class in many countries.
In 2024, emerging market life insurance premiums registered strong 13.1% growth in real terms. This was mainly due to elevated interest rates, solid economic growth, buoyant equity markets and regulatory developments. Excluding China, life premiums in the other emerging markets grew by 10.5%, a considerable improvement from 1.7% in 2023.
Global trends
After a strong showing in 2024, premium growth in the world’s insurance industry is slowing on both the non-life and life sides, impacted by global economic slowdown and the unstable policy environment, says the report. SRI estimates total premiums (life and non-life) to grow at 2% in real terms in 2025 (vs 5.2% in 2024), with a marginal pick-up to 2.3% in 2026.
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In non-life insurance, intensifying competition in personal lines and softer market conditions across commercial lines will drive premium growth significantly lower to an estimated 2.6% this year (2024: 4.7%) in real terms.
For life insurance, after a strong performance in 2024 (premiums up 6.1%) driven by high demand for savings products, premium growth is set to slow to 1% this year as interest rates come off their highs. SRI forecasts an improvement to 2.4% growth in 2026. However, volatile financial markets are making policyholders more cautious, and we anticipate a shift in demand to life products with savings guarantees. Demand for protection business is inelastic and hence relatively shielded (although still exposed should economic slowdown be prolonged).
Profitability
The industry’s profitability outlook remains positive, with investment returns still rising.
SRI expects P&C underwriting tailwinds to fade beyond 2025, given economic slowdown and broader softening in insurance pricing, but for positive momentum in investment profitability to continue for a further 2-3 years as structurally higher interest rates feed into asset portfolios. Life insurers will also benefit, but high market volatility and rising default rates pose downside risk to profitability, particularly for insurers with weaker capital buffers.