Turkiye:Cautious optimism tempers expectations of insurance market growth in 2026

Senior executives in the Turkish insurance sector expects real growth in 2026 despite macroeconomic conditions, according to the findings of a survey conducted by the Insurance Association of Turkiye (TSB).

The TSB’s ”Insurance Sector Senior Executive Expectation Survey – January 2026” report highlights four critical factors that respondents say are shaping 2026. They are:

• Cautious optimism: Executives expect real growth in the sector despite macroeconomic conditions. However, the trend of inflation and interest rates is seen as the primary risk that will challenge profitability.

• Sectoral divergence: While the non-life branch expects real increases in premiums and profitability, the life and pension branch maintains a more cautious stance, forecasting performance in line with inflation.

• Determining factors: Investment performance, pricing policies, and regulations stand out as the fundamental factors that will impact profitability in 2026. Efficiency and adaptability are gaining critical importance.

• Dual strategy: To protect profitability, the sector is adopting a selective approach to pricing and risk selection, while prioritising automation and digitalisation on the cost side.

Profile of respondents

• Total number of respondents: 81 senior executives

• Roles: 22% General Managers (GM), 78% Assistant General Managers (AGM)

• Departments: Technical, Sales, Finance, Marketing, Claims, Operations, and IT

• Sectoral Distribution: 78% non-life, 16% life and pension, 6% reinsurance and others

Research period: December 2025

Macroeconomic impact

When asked about the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the sector's growth and profitability, significant differences are observed depending on the respondent’s corporate position and sector.

a) Split opinions

• 40% of executives expect no significant impact from macroeconomic conditions on growth and profitability. However, perspectives vary by role; 44% of General Managers expect a positive impact, while only 27% of AGMs share this view.

b) Threats to profitability

• Interest rates (41%): Identified as the most challenging factor, particularly for the non-life branch (42%) and technical departments (44%).

• Inflation (31%): Expected to create cost pressure, cited by 48% of those in the life and pension branch and 60% in IT.

• Exchange rates (21%): Especially critical for marketing departments (39%).

Performance expectations

• Premium production: 64% of executives expect real growth in 2026.

  • Non-life: The most optimistic segment with a 67% real growth expectation.

  • Life and pension: More cautious (54% real growth expectation) due to the ongoing stagnation in bank loans.

  Profitability: Half of the executives expect a real increase in profit.

  • 70% of this profit increase is expected to come from technical profitability, highlighting the strength of the sector's core business model. Only finance managers believe profit growth will primarily stem from investment/financial income (57.1%).

Strategic Priorities for 2026

1. Selective pricing and risk selection (23%): Priority for finance, technical, and sales.

   Cost optimisation (21%): A key strategy for marketing and technical departments.

   Automation and digitalisation (20%): The #1 priority for the life and pension branch (29%), as well as IT, operations, and claims departments.

The 2026 agenda

The main agenda items for 2026 will be regulation, interest rates, and competition. While the outlook for premium production is generally positive, life and pension companies remain more cautious. Strategic success will depend on investment performance, regulatory compliance, and pricing discipline, with an overall focus on efficiency and sustainable profitability.

To access the research: https://www.tsb.org.tr/tr/AnasayfaDuyuru/305