Mr Chakib Abouzaid, the Secretary-General of the General Arab Insurance Federation (GAIF), made a statement on Iran and the US reaching agreement on a memorandum of understanding to end the Middle East war.
His statement reads:
The climate of uncertainty that has prevailed since 28 February 2026 has slowed down a large number of projects and contributed to an inflationary shock, driven by rising oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil production transits).
Today, oil prices have fallen back to a more reasonable range of $80–84 per barrel. This will allow oil-producing countries to replenish their reserves and help ease upward pressure on prices worldwide. A revival of economic activity is now expected.
GCC
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait will be able to fully restart their oil exports, while Qatar may take longer to return to its pre-war export levels. Over the coming years, major investments are expected to gradually return to oil-producing countries, not only to repair and modernise infrastructure but also to support long-term economic development.
A return to normality will also encourage governments to intensify their efforts to create economic momentum capable of restoring the confidence of foreign investors.
The recovery of economic activity in the GCC will translate into increased demand for insurance from governments, businesses and individuals. By the end of 2026, insurance market growth is likely to remain limited at best; however, a more visible recovery should emerge from 2027 onwards.
Outside GCC
Outside the GCC countries, no major changes should be expected. Insurance markets will broadly follow GDP growth, although they may outperform by an additional 2–3%, driven by increasing demand from both individuals (health, motor and life insurance) and businesses.
If the ceasefire holds, there is hope that the Lebanese insurance sector could, within a few years, return to its pre-crisis levels.
Beyond the Arab world, Iran is likely to be the main beneficiary of the ceasefire, provided that economic sanctions are lifted and frozen assets are returned. This would give a significant boost to both the Iranian economy and insurance industry.