Arctic summers could soon be with no sea ice
Source: Middle East Insurance Review | Jul 2023
The Arctic could begin to have summer months with no sea ice sometime by around 2050, sooner than earlier predicted according to a new research study.
A recent report from the IPCC published in a recent issue of science journal Nature Communications suggests that the region is likely to see the September months without sea ice by the middle of the century if humans continue to emit greenhouse gases at high or moderate levels.
The report says this will happen even in a low-emissions scenario. Higher emissions could hasten ice-free Septembers to begin by between 2030 to 2040.
Arctic sea-ice coverage is typically lowest in September, before growing again in the colder, darker autumn and winter months and peaking in March.
A warmer Arctic will quicken the melting of the permafrost, releasing more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and accelerating a dangerous feedback loop. This quick melting of the Greenland ice sheet would also contribute to rising sea levels.
The new study found that about 90% of Arctic sea-ice melting is caused by human impact and only about 10% by natural forces.
When measurable human impact is integrated into climate models, it provides a clearer picture of when the ice will disappear.
The potential loss of summer sea-ice in the Arctic is complicated by a number of factors. These include shortcomings of the existing climate models and a huge amount of natural variability in climate data. M