Risk of isolation increases with sea-level rise
Source: Middle East Insurance Review | Aug 2023
Scientists speaking about rising sea levels and mainly focus on the communities that will be flooded permanently. However, rising seas will isolate people much earlier before they are underwater.
A new research report published in the journal Nature Climate Change by a team of researchers University of Maryland, US and University of Canterbury, New Zealand has said people will be cut off from roads and other critical infrastructure long before they are underwater. It is a threat that society has not paid enough attention to.
The study said the typical displacement metric for sea-level rise adaptation planning is property inundation. However, this metric may underestimate risk as it does not fully capture the wider cascading or indirect effects of sea-level rise.
The report said to address this issue, it is proposed to complement it by considering the risk of population isolation: those who may be cut off from essential services. Investigate the importance of this metric by comparing the number of people at risk from inundation to the number of people at risk from isolation.
The increases in sea level across the US vary between 30% and 90% and is several times higher in some states.
The study revealed that the risk of isolation may occur decades sooner than the risk of inundation. Both risk metrics provide critical information for evaluating adaptation options and gives priority to support for at-risk communities.
The study said, “Many places currently considered at low risk of sea level rise suddenly become much more vulnerable when isolation is taken into account. While planners know that low-lying Florida will be severely inundated, Maine, with its high rocky coasts, is generally thought to be at low risk. But the study team’s work shows many Mainers are vulnerable to being cut off by flooding in coastal communities and river valleys.” M