Two out of three glaciers could be lost by 2100
Source: Middle East Insurance Review | Feb 2023
With continued investment in fossil fuels, over 40% of the glacial mass will be gone and over 80% of glaciers by number could well disappear by 2100, according to new research by a team of Carnegie Mellon University in the US. At present world has around 215,000 glaciers.
The study, ‘Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters’, published in a recent issue of the journal Science said the team led by civil and environmental engineering assistant professor David Rounce found that even in a best-case, low-emissions scenario, where the increase in global mean temperature is limited to +1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels, around 26% of glacial mass will be gone and nearly 50% of glaciers by number are projected to disappear.
A majority of these lost glaciers are small (less than one square km) by glacial standards, but their loss can negatively impact local hydrology, tourism, glacier hazards, and cultural values. Glacier loss will also exacerbate sea-level rise.
The study revealed that the way in which glaciers respond to changes in climate takes a long time. Dr Rounce said the glaciers are extremely slow-moving rivers. Cutting emissions today will not remove previously emitted greenhouse gasses, nor can it instantly halt the inertia they contribute to climate change, meaning even a complete halt to emissions would still take between 30 and 100 years to be reflected in glacier mass loss rates.
The research said smaller glacial regions like Central Europe and Western Canada and the US will be disproportionately affected by temperatures and at a 3° C rise, glaciers in these regions would almost disappear completely. M