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Mar 2024

Heatwaves lower the GDP of low-income countries

Source: Middle East Insurance Review | Dec 2022

Even short spells of extreme heat can be enough to lower a region’s economic output for an entire year, according to a new study showing the unequal impact of global warming.
 
The study conducted by Dartmouth University found that between 1992 and 2013 periods of extremely hot weather cost the global economy an estimated $16tn, while hitting the poorest countries four times as hard as the richest ones.
 
Previous studies have shown that climate change hits the poorest nations hardest, despite them contributing the least to climate change. This is partly because many low-income countries are in the tropics and have a hotter climate to begin with.
 
New data on economic growth allowed the study to look at the impact of extreme heat at a regional level and use models to fill in the data in parts of Africa and Asia where figures were missing.
 
The analysis reveals that short spells of extreme heat were significant enough to lower a region’s economic output for the entire year.
 
An annual increase in the temperature of the five hottest days of a year reduced economic growth in tropical regions by as much as a percentage point. Nations with the lowest income were estimated to have lost 6.7% of their GDP between 1992 and 2013 due to heatwaves, while regions in the top income level lost only 1.5%.
 
The acute economic disruption in tropical regions during heatwaves is probably caused by crop production and labour productivity dropping while mortality rates increase. Heatwaves also destroy infrastructure, melting roads and warping train tracks, while causing the power systems that cool buildings to burn out.
 
City planners will increasingly have to consider how their designs will fare during extremely hot spells, while local authorities may have to introduce temporary measures, such as converting public spaces into cooling centres. M 
 
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