Hotter cities by 2050 will hit productivity and supply chains
Source: Middle East Insurance Review | Jul 2021
The number of the world’s cities at extreme risk from heat stress is forecast to rise 58% from 482 today to 762 by 2050, according to a new research by Verisk Maplecroft.
The new research said the hotter cities cause increased health risks, result in more transport and power disruption and threaten productivity. It said corporate supply chains can expect high commodity prices, lower productivity and growing labour risks in warmer months.
“Pressures on power and water supplies, excess mortalities and labour capacity losses are already shared across southern European cities like Lisbon, Bologna and Athens … but they will, on average, transition into feeling more like Middle Eastern and north African cities.”
London, which is predicted to be as hot as Milan is today by 2050, could lose as much as $2.8bn in lower productivity levels from illness and transport delays caused by higher temperatures, said the report. Milan’s average temperature sits at about 30°C in July, some 11 degrees warmer currently than London.
In the US, New York is expected to record an additional 30 heat-stress days each year by 2050, challenging the city’s health and infrastructure. A climate lawsuit in 2018 against fossil fuel companies revealed New York City was spending $100m on a programme to protect the most vulnerable from extreme heat.
“These expenditures will grow hugely over the coming decades, with the costs of heat resilience strategies and fluctuating energy demands being passed onto real asset owners and businesses,” the Verisk report said. M