News MiddleEast22 Oct 2018

MENA:Turkey forecast to have region's longest life expectancy in 2040

| 22 Oct 2018

Lebanon, with an average life expectancy of 80.1 years in 2016 and ranked 31st among 195 nations and 1st among 20 MENA countries, may see Turkey and Qatar overtake it in average life expectancy in 2040, according to a new scientific study.

The study indicates that if recent health trends continue, Lebanon could drop to a rank of 40th among 195 countries and 3rd among 20 MENA nations in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 81.8 years, an increase of 1.7 years.

Lebanon’s life expectancy could increase by as much as 5.7 years in a better health scenario or decrease by 0.4 year in a worse health scenario.

In MENA, all 20 countries would see a longer life expectancy in 2040 compared to 2016. However, changes are expected in their relative rankings.

In particular, Syria is expected to rise most in rank globally – from 137th in 2016 to 80th in 2040 – likely, according to the authors, due to a conservative model for conflict. In contrast, Palestine is expected to drop the most in its life expectancy ranking – from 114th in 2016 to 152nd in 2040. 

Country

Forecast MENA

ranking in 2040

Forecast life 

expectancy in 2040 (years)

Forecast global ranking in 2040

MENA

ranking in 2016

 

Life expectancy

in 2016 (years)

Global  ranking in 2016

Turkey 1 83.1 26 4 78.8 40
Qatar 2 82.3 36 2 79.9 33
Lebanon 3 81.8 40 1 80.1 31
Kuwait 4 81.4 41 3 79.4 36
Saudi Arabia 5 81.2 43 7 77.0 61
Oman 6 79.9 61 8 76.9 62
Algeria 7 79.9 63 6 77.4 53
Tunisia 8 79.8 65 5 77.5 51
Bahrain 9 79.6 67 9 76.8 64
UAE 10 79.5 68 10 75.5 77
Jordan 11 79.4 69 12 76.3 67
Morocco 12 78.9 75 14 75.0 87
Iran 13 78.7 77 11 76.0 71
Syria 14 78.6 80 18 68.2 137
Libya 15 77.1 97 13 75.1 84
Egypt 16 76.2 106 15 72.0 112
Mauritania 17 75.8 113 17 70.2 130
Iraq 18 73.9 135 19 67.6 141
Yemen 19 73.2 141 20 66.7 147
Palestine 20 72.2 152 16 71.9 114

 

Researchers produced forecasts of independent drivers of health, including sociodemographic measurements of fertility, per capita income, and years of education, along with 79 independent drivers of health such as smoking, high body mass index, and lack of clean water and sanitation. They then used information on how each of these independent drivers affects specific causes of death to develop forecasts of mortality.

Globally, the top three rankings in 2040 would be:

  1. first, Spain (average lifespan of 85.8 years), a rise from fourth in 2016 (average lifespan of 82.9 years);
  2. Japan, ranked first in 2016 (average lifespan 83.7 years), will drop to second place in 2040 (average lifespan 85.7 years);
  3. third, Singapore (average lifespan 85.4 years), as compared to 83.3 years in 2016.

 

| Print | Share

Note that your comment may be edited or removed in the future, and that your comment may appear alongside the original article on websites other than this one.

 

Recent Comments

There are no comments submitted yet. Do you have an interesting opinion? Then be the first to post a comment.