Climate risk to crops is underestimated
Source: Middle East Insurance Review | Sep 2023
The risks of agricultural harvest failures in multiple global breadbaskets have been underestimated by the world, according to a new study.
The study Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections published in a July 2023 issue of scientific journal Nature Communications said the global community may be underestimating the threat climate change poses to our food systems.
The research conducted by a team of researchers from the Columbia University in the US; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and Humboldt University Germany looked at the likelihood that several major food producing regions could simultaneously suffer low yields.
Food production is both a major source of planet-warming emissions and is highly exposed to the effects of climate change, with climate and crop models used to figure out what the impacts could be as the world warms.
The study looked at observational and climate model data between 1960 and 2014 and then at projections for 2045 to 2099.
The research team said the study should be a “wakeup call in terms of our uncertainties” of the impacts of climate change on the food sector, with more frequent and intense weather extremes . Preparation is needed for complex climate risks in the future but the current models are not able capture these. M