Magazine

Read the latest edition of AIR and MEIR as an Interactive e-book

Mar 2024

MENA: Turkey and Qatar to overtake Lebanon in life expectancy by 2040

Source: Middle East Insurance Review | Dec 2018

Lebanon, with an average life expectancy of 80.1 years in 2016 and ranked 31st among 195 nations and 1st among 20 MENA countries, may see Turkey and Qatar overtake it in average life expectancy in 2040, according to a new scientific study.
 
The study indicated that if recent health trends continue, Lebanon could drop to 40th place among 195 countries and 3rd among 20 MENA nations in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 81.8 years, an increase of 1.7 years.
 
Lebanon’s life expectancy could increase by as much as 5.7 years in a better health scenario or decrease by 0.4 year in a worse health scenario.
 
In MENA, all 20 countries would see a longer life expectancy in 2040 compared to 2016. However, changes are expected in their relative rankings. In particular, Syria is expected to rise the most in rank globally – from 137th in 2016 to 80th in 2040 – likely due to a conservative model for conflict, according to the study. In contrast, Palestine is expected to drop the most in its life expectancy ranking – from 114th in 2016 to 152nd in 2040.  
 
Researchers produced forecasts of independent drivers of health, including sociodemographic measurements of fertility, per capita income, and years of education, along with 79 independent drivers of health such as smoking, high body mass index, and lack of clean water and sanitation. They then used information on how each of these independent drivers affects specific causes of death to develop forecasts of mortality.
 
Globally, the top three rankings in 2040 will be:
  • Spain, with an average lifespan of 85.8 years, will rank first – a rise from fourth place (2016: 82.9 years);
  • Japan, with an average lifespan of 83.7 years, will drop to second place from first in 2016 (2016: 85.7 years); and
  • Singapore, with an average lifespan of 85.4 years (2016: 83.3 years). M 
 
| Print
CAPTCHA image
Enter the code shown above in the box below.

Note that your comment may be edited or removed in the future, and that your comment may appear alongside the original article on websites other than this one.

 

Recent Comments

There are no comments submitted yet. Do you have an interesting opinion? Then be the first to post a comment.