At Thatcham Research we are continuously researching the effects of active safety systems and semi-autonomous vehicles on future accident rates and repairs.
Key findings to date predict a gradual reduction in accident rates, which is good news for all road users, while for repairers the research shows that more autonomy on our roads does not necessarily dramatically lead to fewer jobs in their workshops. However, while a gradual transition from high speed to low speed accidents is expected, with fewer written off vehicles, increasing complexity in repair is also foreseen.
Trying to predict what the crash of the future will look like and then informing insurers and bodyshops is one of our key responsibilities. Essentially, progress in the industry is racing ahead on three fronts – car construction and materials, connectivity and active safety/autonomy.
While the technology associated with autonomous driving will reduce the number of front to rear-end collisions, we believe that there will still be plenty of work for the repair industry, some of which will come from repairs on vehicles that may previously have been written off.
Accident damages to be more repairable
The mitigation effect of new crash avoidance technology has not featured very much in general reporting of accident repairs in the future. However, with some of the latest Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) systems now becoming effective at speeds up to and beyond 50 km/h, there is an increasing likelihood for serious higher speed accidents to be mitigated and vehicles to become economically repairable, rather than written off.
We are also currently working with TAQEEM, the Saudi Government Authority for Accredited Valuers, to address and improve the end-to-end repair processes in Saudi Arabia. Our scope is from first point of accident through to repair and if necessary, salvage.
Of course it will also deliver improved technical repair training and continuous skills development – it is essential for government and all parties involved in the accident damage claims process to exert greater control and ensure safe, quality repair.
It is also critical for insurers to be able to plan for future accident damage claims as these will become more complex and require increasing levels of technical skill and equipment due to the increasing complexity and technology within new vehicles.
New and lighter materials
On vehicle construction and the ever-tightening global emissions targets remain a notable driver behind the evolution in body materials. The weight of the vehicle body accounts for 23% of the factors affecting total emissions and consumption, so manufacturers are naturally targeting this area, and there have been wholesale changes in recent years (Figure 1).
Even those markets with less stringent targets will see vehicle design change as manufacturers produce “global” cars to meet all the diverse emissions and crash safety requirements around the world, perhaps with one or two regional variances such as reduced crash structures where legislation is less strict.
The new vehicle range is littered with examples of this – next year only a quarter of the Chevrolet Cruze bodywork will be mild steel, with the rest comprising advanced/ultra and high-strength steel, press hardened steel and aluminium. This strategy is even more prevalent in prestigious and high-value cars such as the Audi Q7 which features a mix of advanced steels and aluminium, and new processes to join these materials.
Even the composition of these steels are changing. Four years ago steel could have a maximum strength of 1200MPa, while today steels with a strength as high as 2000MPa are being considered for reducing the weight of components such as car doors.
Importantly, we are also seeing the quiet rise of carbon fibre. While we can clearly see carbon fibre in models from McLaren and Lamborghini, what is less visible is the application of this material group for road wheels, suspension components, and body panels for more mainstream brands including Toyota.
Understanding vehicle material for the future
We even see the first hybrid panels, where steel and carbon fibre are combined in safety-critical parts of the car. Crucially, carbon fibre doesn’t bend, but can crack or “delaminate” rather than bend like steels, and while this property is known by aviation engineers, safe diagnosis and repair is largely unknown within the automotive industry.
Some of these advanced materials are non-repairable, but the question remains as to whether the automotive repair market across the Middle East and beyond are aware of this.
It’s our role at Thatcham Research to help technicians understand what is repairable on these types of new vehicles and how it should be approached. This is something we achieve through production of high quality research repair information and world-class training courses – a complete system designed to provide bodyshops with the right tools to do the job, whatever the vehicle model type and construction.
Promoting car safety
Another key area for us at Thatcham Research has been in understanding and promoting the benefits of safety technology. We’ve put a lot of work into encouraging manufacturers to fit AEB to vehicles and the vehicle risk rating service that we provide for UK insurers has been instrumental in driving an exponential rise in the fitment of this technology since 2012.
AEB is available on 56% of new models launched in the UK market so far during 2016 and we are seeing manufacturers like Toyota fitting AEB to all their range worldwide. That’s good from a standing start, but AEB is just one example. There are many other safety systems coming to the market and we’re trying to model the benefit of these technologies to both bodyshops and insurers.
We are also examining the repair and diagnostic implications of other Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) such as screen-mounted sensors. None of these sensors work in isolation and are typically working with other sensors and components. There is a working relationship between the windscreen camera, the front radar, and the vehicle steering alignment; but which do you align and calibrate first, and how?
This knowledge could be even more crucial as consumers opt for devices such as Head-Up Displays which are predicted to be extremely popular as these can integrate navigation, safety and personal email and messages.
Expertise to leverage on technology
There is already an increase in demand for electrical skills among bodyshop technicians, as well as for the equipment that is needed to recalibrate and retest sensors after every incident. This is vital if the rising rates of serious injuries and fatalities in some Middle Eastern regions is to be stemmed and reversed (Graph 1).
These technologies save lives by avoiding or reducing the energy of an impact; but to do so they need to be functioning correctly.
Similarly the zones on the front of cars, designed to soften and absorb energies in the unfortunate event of a collision with a pedestrian, need to be correctly repaired, or in many instances replaced, to ensure they perform correctly.
With a mix of sensors and deformation zones, expert repair is vital and that is only possible by expert training and vehicle-specific repair information.
Mr Neale Phillips is Strategy and Development Director at Thatcham Research.